Chapter 06 · Private markets

Private markets with neutral escrow

Private invite-only markets lock gross odds and the Omen fee rule before funding, with third-party escrow and neutral resolution.

This is the feature existing prediction markets mostly skip: a private, invite-only market with real third-party escrow. Set the odds yourself, share the link, and those odds never move.

It is a handshake bet with the escrow built in. Post $700 on YES at 70 cents and invite someone to match it with $300 on NO. Acceptance fixes both stakes and the gross claim allocation: neither party can change the odds afterward. The final cash payout is the remaining matched backing after the precommitted court and Omen fee rules are applied.

Fixed at acceptance

The odds fix the gross claim, not a fee-free payout

The production Omen fee is TBD and must be disclosed and locked before either party funds. DemoThemis independently calculates the complete court fee when resolution is requested; the room cannot cap or reduce it.

YES stake$700
NO stake$300
Gross payout pool$1,000
Production Omen feeTBD
Fee statusPayout calculationCourt fee set at resolution ยท Omen fee TBD
DemoThemis court feeExact demand-priced quote at resolution Pool checkNo case if the exact fee cannot be supported Omen fee after reimbursementTBD Net directional payoutCalculated after both fees are known

When resolution is requested, contributors together advance the exact court fee. A final YES or NO pays them back from the matched backing, charges the locked Omen fee on what remains, and pays the winning private claim units. Insufficient information pays nobody back, charges no Omen fee, and leaves both sides' backing untouched.

Two things make the room more than a convenience. It is protocol escrow in its simplest clothes: two parties, a disagreement with money locked in the middle, and an arbiter already attached, which is the exact shape of the deals apps will route here later. And a settled private market gives the court something no public market can: a real question with a verified answer that never appeared on any public page. With the participants' consent it becomes a blind test for jurors, one that cannot be looked up, which is the one kind of test a court cannot look up.